ABC: Peak oil losing credibility as renewables shift accelerates

Peter Ryan writes that Peak oil losing credibility as renewables shift accelerates.

The peak oil argument has confronted a new global reality — or a new normal — driven by major geopolitical and economic factors rocking both the developed and developing world:

• US shale producers are pumping like never before and adding to stockpiles.
• With US sanctions lifted, oil-rich Iran is about to rejoin the global market.
• The OPEC oil cartel is refusing to tighten supplies to keep prices high betting that US producers will produce themselves out of business.

AMP's Shane Oliver believes that, rather than facing a peak oil shock, consumers and industries will continue to move away from fossil fuels in an orderly manner as a wider range of renewable technologies get closer to affordable reality.

Emphasis Mine

What Ryan does not mention is the world-wide economic slump since the GFC of 2008, and the economic warfare against two of USA's official enemies: Russia and Venezuela.

The GFC introduced a period of austerity in which economic activity is curtailed. This austerity has driven down the demand for oil as consumers have less money to spend.

Because both Russia and Venezuela rely on oil exports to fund their economies, a sharp drop in oil prices contracts their economies, and makes them more susceptible to US pressure. This has certainly been the case of Venezuela where the opposition has made huge gains in the recent national assembly elections as the result of national hardships.

Ryan also discounts the enormous externalities that shale oil production incurs: contamination of the ground water; and earthquakes. At current prices, all shale oil producers are losing money.

Have we dodged the bullet on peak oil? I would say "Yes". My earlier post in The Death of Peak Oil concluded that:

We face a critical juncture in world history. Our industrial civilization is heavily dependent on oil for farming, transportation, and manufacturing. Yet, to continue economic growth, we must contaiminate our water supply and imperil the climate. The question is no longer about standards of living but of human survival.

And in A glut of oil?, I wrote:

On the negative side, the lower prices are affecting the Bolivaran Revolution in Venezuela. Lower national income is beginning to affect the social programs of the government. So, it is not all bad from the Capitalist's point of view. Temporary economic pain in order to destroy an alternative to Capitalism.