Yves Smith: Zelensky’s Latest TV Interview Shows How Much the Ukraine Conflict’s Dynamics Have Shifted
Yves Smith discusses Zelensky’s Latest TV Interview Shows How Much the Ukraine Conflict’s Dynamics Have Shifted/
First, Russia has deemed four formerly Ukraine oblasts as Russian territory. It has not secured full control of them and that step would be the bare minimum that Russia would accept, which means more territorial acquisition. Second and even more important, a stated aim of the Special Military Operation was the “demilitarization” of Ukraine, which the Istanbul negotiations showed could be met by the exit of NATO forces (little green men) and weapons from Ukraine and a commitment that Ukraine would never enter NATO. Note this negotiation took place before Porshenko, and later Merkel and Hollande admitted to entering into the Minsk Accords in bad faith and using it to buy time to arm Ukraine. The US and NATO officials have repeatedly said that who joins NATO is NATO’s business and they will never agree to restrict membership. So that requires Russia to continue to prosecute the war until NATO members are so drained that they are not capable of mounting a threat for a long time.
Third and most important, the Russian public would not accept a ceasefire. Putin is one of the least belligerent individuals in Russian public life.
Emphasis Mine
Between Zelensky's maximalist position of restoration of Ukrainian 1991 boundaries and Russian legal theory that five (5) oblasts are now formerly part of the Russian Federation, there is currently no basis for any peace talks to start, nor, even, a cease-fire. Given the Russian perception that the West has negotiated in bad faith previously, and any cease-fire would be used to rearm Ukraine in order to continue teh conflict. Without the prospect of a cease-fire leading to peace, the war will continue until the Ukranian armed forces are destroyed. Even then there is the danger that NATO troops would be covertly introduced to prolong the conflict thereby confirming Russian suspicion that it has been fighting NATO all along.
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