ABC: Peak oil losing credibility as renewables shift accelerates

Peter Ryan writes that Peak oil losing credibility as renewables shift accelerates.

The peak oil argument has confronted a new global reality — or a new normal — driven by major geopolitical and economic factors rocking both the developed and developing world:

• US shale producers are pumping like never before and adding to stockpiles.
• With US sanctions lifted, oil-rich Iran is about to rejoin the global market.
• The OPEC oil cartel is refusing to tighten supplies to keep prices high betting that US producers will produce themselves out of business.

AMP's Shane Oliver believes that, rather than facing a peak oil shock, consumers and industries will continue to move away from fossil fuels in an orderly manner as a wider range of renewable technologies get closer to affordable reality.

Emphasis Mine

What Ryan does not mention is the world-wide economic slump since the GFC of 2008, and the economic warfare against two of USA's official enemies: Russia and Venezuela.

The GFC introduced a period of austerity in which economic activity is curtailed. This austerity has driven down the demand for oil as consumers have less money to spend.

Because both Russia and Venezuela rely on oil exports to fund their economies, a sharp drop in oil prices contracts their economies, and makes them more susceptible to US pressure. This has certainly been the case of Venezuela where the opposition has made huge gains in the recent national assembly elections as the result of national hardships.

Ryan also discounts the enormous externalities that shale oil production incurs: contamination of the ground water; and earthquakes. At current prices, all shale oil producers are losing money.

Have we dodged the bullet on peak oil? I would say "Yes". My earlier post in The Death of Peak Oil concluded that:

We face a critical juncture in world history. Our industrial civilization is heavily dependent on oil for farming, transportation, and manufacturing. Yet, to continue economic growth, we must contaiminate our water supply and imperil the climate. The question is no longer about standards of living but of human survival.

And in A glut of oil?, I wrote:

On the negative side, the lower prices are affecting the Bolivaran Revolution in Venezuela. Lower national income is beginning to affect the social programs of the government. So, it is not all bad from the Capitalist's point of view. Temporary economic pain in order to destroy an alternative to Capitalism.

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Juan Cole: Is its Syria Adventure destabilizing Turkey?

Nadir Firat asks Is its Syria Adventure destabilizing Turkey?.

In the instance of the shooting down of the Russian plane, this multi-layered government propaganda apparatus started fabricating a reality that appeals to the nationalistic sensitivities of the majority in Turkey. In this particular case the job was not necessarily hard as the Turkish state, partly as a component of its nation-building project following the establishment of Turkey; partly, like any other colonialist power, to differentiate and subjugate its colonized population (Kurds in this case) and finally partly to strengthen the position of Kemalist elites in power, applied a comprehensive program of indoctrination of nationalism on its citizens. This was further strengthened in the 80’s and beyond when the Generals of 1980 military coup decided to fight against the threat of communism by using nationalism and religion. No means were spared. The education system, compulsory military service, government controlled mosques and media are all used as tools to indoctrinate people with the nationalistic fervor. In short, Sunni-Turk identity attached to a glorious past (a past rewritten to fulfill the contemporary needs) became a common belief and words like “Turk” or “Ottoman” started to carry a semi-sacred aura. The clearest indicator to the success of this indoctrination is the research done on the voting preferences of Turkish citizens. Although the majority vote for different parties for a variety of reasons, 65% of the voters say that they have the ultra nationalist MHP as their second choice.

Emphasis Mine

This places Turkey as a settler-colonialist society with an imperial past. The trajectory is reflected in other settler-colonialist societies:

• England focussing on English language and culture along with Anglican Christainity
• France focussing on French language and culture along with atheism
• Australia focussing on English language and culture along with Anglican Christainity
• USA focussing on English language and culture along with fundamentalist Christainity
• Israel focussing on Hebraic language and culture along Judaism

Other nations are following this pattern of enforcing a single language, culture, and religion: Sri Lanka with Buddhism; India with Hinduism; Japan with Shintoism; Kenya with Christainity; etc. Uniformity makes control easier, and uniformity become self-policing as detractors are easily identified and shamed.

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GLW: Turkish government undertaking massacre in Kurdistan

Australian Kurdish Association writes that Turkish government undertaking massacre in Kurdistan.

As a result of the attacks of the Turkish state forces, a comprehensive war is ongoing in Kurdistan since July of this year. The people of Kurdistan, just like all the peoples of the world, want to live freely and govern themselves in their own country. The Turkish state is rejecting all demands for rights by the Kurdish people and is deploying violent suppression. This is the essence and cause of the problem.

In accordance with its own interests, the AKP government put the ongoing dialogue and negotiation process with the Kurdistan Freedom Movement on hold and initialised the war against the Kurds.

As a result, the Kurdistan Freedom Forces took up a position of self-defence. In many towns and cities, the people of Kurdistan have attempted to establish autonomous local administrations in order to govern themselves without rejecting the state. This action in the towns and cities was a completely civil and democratic affair.

However, in an atmosphere in which even the slightest opposition is not tolerated, the AKP government disregarded the rightful demands of the Kurdish people and opted to violently repress this democratic advance. They declared indefinite curfews, targeted civilians and residential areas, killed hundreds of civilians and [destroyed] towns and cities.

Emphasis Mine

As I wrote in Rojava fights off new Islamic State attack:

Once again, the Capitalists want the world to know that “There is No Alternative”. They are prepared to use their enemy, IS, in attempt to destroy what they see as a far-greater threat: that of an alternative, functioning society based on grass-roots democracy and socialist ideals.

And there is the historic problem of Turkish nationalism: what to do about the minorities like Armenians, Kurds, and Greeks? The collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War meant that the Turkish population faced an identity crisis much like the English on the collapse of the British Empire, and the French on the loss of theirs.

When empire defines a nation, the loss of empires means loss of identity. In these cases, national identity became focussed on racial identity. And the loss of identity was explained by the weakening of the national character through the influx of the inferior races. Thus, xenophobia joined racism as the replacement for empire as the national identity.

Just like England and France, Turkey engages in military interventions in former imperial territories in order to defend its interests. Just like England in Northen Ireland, and France in the Basque country, Turkey suppresses minorities who agitate for legitimate rights under international law.

All of this is the natural consequence of a post-imperial Capitalist society. In Capitalism, a country is built around a nation—however that is defined. Threatened the purity of the nation, and the country is threatened. And a threatened country lashes out. A post-imperial country is still willing and able to use military might to lash out.

As long as Capitalism persists, this suppression of minority rights will continue. Capitalism has no other choice.

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TomGram: Frida Berrigan: "Are They Going to Kill Me?"

Frida Berrigan tries to console her young son when he asks about the police: "Are They Going to Kill Me?".

After the police killings of Lashano Gilbert (tased to death in our town of New London, Connecticut), Eric Garner, Michael Brown, and Freddie Gray, we took the kids to candlelight vigils and demonstrations, doing our best to answer all Seamus's questions. "Why do the police kill people?" followed, of course, by "Are they going to kill me?" Then we somehow had to explain white privilege to a three year old and how the very things that we encouraged in him — curiosity, openness, questioning authority — were the things black parents were forced to discourage in their sons to keep them from getting killed by police.

And then, of course, came the next inevitable "Why?" (the same one I’m sure we’ll hear for years to come).  And soon enough, we were trying desperately to untangle ourselves from the essentially unintelligible — for such a young child certainly, but possibly the rest of us as well — when it came to the legacy of slavery and racism and state violence in explaining to our little white boy why he doesn't need to cry every time he sees a police officer.

And then came the next "Why?" and who wouldn’t think sooner or later that the real answer to all of his whys (and our own) is simply, “Because it’s nuts!  And we’re nuts!” I mean, really, where have we ended up when our answer to him is, in essence: "Don't worry, you're white!"

And then, of course, there’s the anxiety I have about how he’ll take in any of this and how he might talk about it in his racially diverse classroom — the ridiculous game of "telephone" that he could play with all the new words and fragments of concepts rattling around in his brain.

Emphasis Mine

So how do you explain white privilege to a toddler? How do you explain that you are able to get better health-care, better schooling, better jobs, better wages, not go to gaol, not get shot by the police, and just live longer because of the colour of your skin?

And this has to be explained in an ideology that is based on equality of opportunity and merit-based outcomes.

How does one tell the truth while living a lie?

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Juan Cole: Shin Bet: Jewish Terrorists Out to 'Violently Overthrow' Israeli Government

Juan Cole reposts Shin Bet: Jewish Terrorists Out to ‘Violently Overthrow’ Israeli Government.

Israel’s domestic security agency Shin Bet, on Thursday, cautioned that a Jewish terror organization is seeking to “violently overthrow” the Israeli government, Israeli media reported.

…

Israeli media across the board described the public statement issued by the security agency as a rare response to actors who have slandered the Shin Bet in a campaign to defend Jewish extremists responsible for a fatal arson attack on a Palestinian home last summer.

Suspects belonging to a Jewish terror organization, on July 31, set the home of the Dawabsha family ablaze, killing an 18-month-old baby immediately.

The infant’s parents later died from severe burns.

“A Jewish terror organization has been under investigation recently, whose activity is suspected to include serious terror attacks that endangered life and harmed religious sanctity and property,” the Shin Bet statement said, according to Israeli media.

Shin Bet claims that the group adheres to an extreme, “anti-Zionist” ideology and has set itself the goal of violently overthrowing the Israeli government.

“The terror attacks that are suspected to have been carried out by the organization led to, among other things, the murder of three innocent Palestinians. This contributed to instability in the region and worsened the security situation,” the agency added.

Emphasis Mine

In Israeli squatter-terrorists kill Palestinian toddler, injure 4 after setting their Home Ablaze, I wrote then that:

ISIS burn a Jordanian pilot alive and are justly condemned throughout the world.

Israelis burn a Palestinian child alive and there is silence.

As John Pilger says, Palestinians are unworthy victims. Indeed, they are even blamed for all the violence done to them.

Now, we have the Israeli secret police recognizing the existential threat to the Israeli state does not come from the Palestinians, but from the extremist Zionist organizations that dominate Israeli politics. The Israeli governments have been playing the same dangerous game as the Saudi royal family has been playing with Al Qaeda, the US governments with various white power and anti-Abortion groups, and the various Pakistani governments with the Taliban. All of these governments are using religious extremism to shore up support against domestic instability.

Shin Bet may want to think of them as “anti-Zionist”, but the agency refuses to see that these terrorists are the natural consequence of the Zionist ideology applied to the Palestinians. The core of the Zionist ideology is that of a Jewish homeland. Implicit in that idea is the exclusion and explusion of non-Jewish elements. This have the Israeli government project since independence.

The problem with extremism is the exclusion of moderation and compromise. Now, the Israeli elite is being viewed as not being real Jews, and need to be replace by the “true Jews”.

The ideology that nourishes and sustains the Israli state threatens to subsume the state into the Jewish equivalent of ISIS (Daesh) and the Taliban. These Israeli terror groups cannot be fought ideologically because the groups and the state share the same ideology.

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