2018/01/21

Robert Shiller: Economics and the human instinct for storytelling

Robert Shiller writes about Economics and the human instinct for storytelling.

Why do economists miss the stories behind many of our economic fluctuations? One reason is that economists have a tool kit, and narrative hasn’t traditionally been in it. We view narrative as somebody else’s territory. We do simultaneous equations. We teach general equilibrium theory. That’s fine, but by the time we finish teaching those, we’re tired.

But there is room for economists to do research on narrative economics. We have databases. We can do quantitative analysis. It’s not easy to study the very human phenomena of narratives, but we can collaborate with people in the humanities—people such as literary theorists, who try to understand why some story structures work and others don’t. If we do, and if we make room in our tool kit for narrative, I’m optimistic that in the next 10 or 20 years, we will have a better understanding of economic fluctuations.

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Shiller would agree with Scott Adam's assessment that the economy is booming become President Trump inspires small business confidence.

Do narratives drive the economic fundamentals, such as interest rates, rate of return, inflation rate, money supply? Narratives do definitely drive hyperinflation, because narratives are expressions of expectations.

It is also important to know which narratives are dominant. The workers' narratives are drowned out by the Capitalists'.


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Juan Cole: No Normalization: All the Fascist Highlights Trump still Hits

Juan Cole argues for No Normalization: All the Fascist Highlights Trump still Hits.

White grievance is the natural outcome of fascism. If the natural order is racial supremacy, any sign that that supremacy is not being actively performed in all areas of life must be protested. Are we polite to Jews by saying happy holidays instead of Merry Christmas? That is an outrage. Do African-Americans dare protest the governmental scams being run on them by city establishments like Ferguson? That is an outrage.

Not only has Trump not moderated his fascism, but the national media, addicted to ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ journalism, inevitably normalizes it by bringing on Trumpists to model his fascist discourse for the masses.

The US is being pulled to the far right. Many are resisting, but Trump’s capture of the Republican Party means that he has millions of agents for his planned transformation. Only millions of people actively resisting can offset them.

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Back in January 2007, I wrote:

The key trigger to the growth of Fascism is an economic crisis that threatens the Petit-Bourgeois. A combination of economic contraction with foreclosures by banks ignites the movement. That a worker's revolution precedes a Fascist one just means that workers are affected much earlier by an economic collapse than the Bourgeois are.

All the other attributes Dr. Fernandes ascribes to Fascism arise from its intrinsic naure. Racism (p.24) and Nationalism (p.25) are emphasised because they are key results of the Capitalist system. (More of the same to overcome the problem).

The opposition to Enlightenment values (p.25) arises because the Petit-Bourgeois see themselves as doers not thinkers. The abstract notions of free speech, freedom of religious practice, etc. do have any practical effect on their daily lives. They are more seen as restrictions on their activities and an effort to keep them oppressed.

Fascism is then the rebellion of the oppressed small business person against their tormentors. They try to create a new society but end up in the same prison of Capitalism. And, as always, it is the banks and big business who have the last laugh.

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In March 2016, I took the view that:

The most plausible scenario for the rise of Fascism in the USA is for Bernie Sanders to win the Presidency. The mild progressive nature of a Sanders administration would be sufficient to collapse the equilibrium of the American system. And in the backlash, another demagogue would arise to unite the forces that Trump awakened.

A new Clinton administration would not do this. Nor would a Trump or Cruz one. For all of these are working within the system. There is no need for Fascists to take back the system.

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The danger could well lie ahead.


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2018/01/20

Pip Hinman: Heat, climate and policy failure

Pip Hinman writes about the relationship between Heat, climate and policy failure.

While most countries have committed to limiting warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels — a critical step towards decarbonising the world — this is the bare minimum of what needs to happen. Scientists say we need to stabilise temperature increase to below 1.5°C and this means pushing for an urgent and fundamentally new approach.

The technology exists and the plans have been proffered but without serious political pressure on the government, it will continue to get away with doing nothing — while all living creatures suffer the consequences.

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Fortunately, the Capitalists are divided on the issue of climate disruption — this allows ordinary people to influence the debate with the elite.


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Scott Adams: President Trump Earns the Highest Presidential Approval Level of All Time

Scott Adams writes that President Trump Earns the Highest Presidential Approval Level of All Time.

I contend that business optimism — and small business optimism in particular — are the new standard for presidential approval because “economics” captures most of what a president influences.

I could go on. The point is that all of the “big” issues directly influence the economy via their impact on our psychology and our resources. In a free, capitalist country, “the economy” captures all the goodness and badness of a presidency without really trying. And the measure that best reflects the future of the economy, in my opinion, is small business optimism.

Big businesses can do fine with a president who promotes policies that favor big corporations, even if the rest of the country is suffering. But when small business owners are feeling good about the economy, that means the president is doing a more bottoms-up job of getting things right. President Trump has focused on bottoms-up economics from the start, meaning jobs and lessened regulations. Apparently that is working.

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Adams doesn't understand the fundamental contradiction of Capitalism: over-production. The economy will always produce more than consumers are able to buy.

The only source of income for most people is from wages and salary. This caps the amount of consumption in the economy.

Increasing wages increases consumptions, but also costs. Unless profits are to be squeezed, inflation results.

Confidence can only carry the economy so far until the realities of return on investment versus the rate of interest start to restrict investment.

It is interesting to see Adams describe the petite-bourgeoisie as being happy with Trump. This reliance on the support of the petite-bourgeoisie means that Trump has to be tolerant of that class's fascist undercurrents.


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Briahna Joy Gray: Oprah Winfrey for president? The idea reveals an uncomfortable truth

Briahna Joy Gray decries Oprah Winfrey for president? The idea reveals an uncomfortable truth.

But the enthusiasm around the mere specter of Oprah’s presidency reveals an uncomfortable truth about the hypocrisy of Democrats: all the talk of competency during the 2016 presidential election, qualifications, be they ideological or political, are mere pretexts for their choice of candidate.

In the buildup to and aftershock from the 2016 election, perhaps the loudest and most consistent protest heard from Hillary Clinton supporters was “but she’s the most qualified!” Despite having a longer record of public service, Senator Bernie Sanders was deemed less, and by some, insufficiently qualified to run for president. His relative inexperience with foreign policy was a point of regular critique, and those who supported his candidacy on ideological grounds were dismissed as “purists” who didn’t understand the real “work” of being president.

In fact, Sanders’s candidacy arguably took its biggest hit when he suggested that Clinton’s history of poor political judgments, like her vote for the Iraq war, disqualified her for the presidency. Hillary’s qualifications were considered so unassailable, that to challenge them was considered de facto sexism by many.

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Chris Dillow's point on On anti-meritocracy is most relevant here.

Clinton and Trump both represent the decay within the Capitalist political class. Oprah is another indication of teh same.


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2018/01/19

Daniel Little: Trust and organizational effectiveness

Daniel Little writes about Trust and organizational effectiveness.

Trust is enhanced by individuals having the opportunity to get acquainted with their collaborators in a more personal way — to see from non-organizational contexts that they are generally well intentioned; that they make serious efforts to live up to their stated intentions and commitments; and that they are generally honest. So perhaps there is a rationale for the bonding exercises that many companies undertake for their workers.

Likewise, trust is enhanced by the presence of a shared and practiced commitment to the value of trustworthiness. An organization itself can enhance trust in its participants by performing the actions that its participants expect the organization to perform. For example, an organization that abruptly and without consultation ends an important employee benefit undermines trust in the employees that the organization has their best interests at heart. This abrogation of prior obligations may in turn lead individuals to behave in a less trustworthy way, and lead others to have lower levels of trust in each other.

In other words, trust is crucial for collaboration and teamwork. And an organization that manages to help to cultivate a high level of trust among its participants is likely to perform better than one that depends primarily on supervision and enforcement.

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A revolutionary party must continual live up to its ideals through its practices and organisations.

Although we are in the real, continual danger of betrayal through the active interventions of the plethora of secret services, we must persist in trusting each other.

Trust, but verify.


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Ryan Mallett-Outtrim, Lucas Koerner: Venezuela - After Chavista local elections' landslide, internal struggles comes to the fore

Ryan Mallett-Outtrim and Lucas Koerner write about Venezuela: After Chavista local elections' landslide, internal struggles comes to the fore.

During his late-night speech, Maduro vowed to reinvigorate the political movement started under his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. He told supporters he plans to prioritise revitalising the country’s ailing economy.

“2018 belongs to Chavistas,” he said.

However, according to a poll by Venebarometro released in December, Maduro could very well lose if presidential elections were held that week. When asked which candidate they would support, just 28.6% of respondents said they'd vote for Maduro.

The opposition is yet to coalesce around a single candidacy, but the pollsters suggested a generic opposition candidate could command at least 46.3% of the vote. A full quarter of respondents said they were undecided.

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Maduro needs to get his act together fast. The division in the opposition helps him somewhat. But he needs to get the economy working. This means more socialism.


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Neil Thompson: Dragon Ascendant: Green China, not Red China, increasingly Bestrides the World

Neil Thompson writes about the Dragon Ascendant: Green China, not Red China, increasingly Bestrides the World.

Regardless, many offenders are now facing being hit with fines and criminal offenses as a result of their emissions. It is all part of an increasing effort by China’s top leadership to “Go Green” after decades of focus on economic growth above all. Prompted at first by fears of social unrest and the environmental consequences of careless pollution China’s leadership is increasingly interested in using green technology as the next step in its industrial development. For example, with electric cars rapidly becoming cheaper than traditional gasoline powered vehicles in many markets, China is stealing a march on its rivals by becoming the largest market for manufacturers. Beijing already leads the world in its manufacture and use of solar power and other renewable energy sources. It could soon be the largest manufacturers of modern vehicles as well.

Interestingly, under Xi China is also building the world’s most advanced carbon trading system and solar highways to generate electricity, which clearly shows were Beijing believes the future lies. China currently produces 78 gigawatts of solar power and is aiming for 105 by 2020. Embarrassingly for America, China also remained in the Paris Agreement when President Trump withdrew from the Obama-era international agreement, deflecting attention from China’s own actions on climate change at a stroke. Despite the air pollution that still hurts its efforts, the nation remains the world’s leading solar energy producer by quite some margin and China also gets 4 percent of its energy from wind power, of which it is one of the top three global markets.

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Solar roadways are a waste of money.

It is interesting how the Chinese regime are responding to the concerns of its citizens. And how the regime is turning these concerns into a business opportunity.

Don't forget that geopolitical concerns are driving China to green energy. These concerns centre around the US's control of the majority of the oil reserves through its proxies in Europe and Saudi Arabia, while the US attacks errant oil-producing nations like Iran and Venezuela. Green energy for China means energy independence.

Strange how political and economic concerns is leading towards a better environment.


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2018/01/18

Chris Dillow: How inequality persists

Chris Dillow discusses How inequality persists.

Klaus Abbink, David Masclet and Daniel Mirza demonstrate a different mechanism — resignation. As inequality becomes extreme, they show, people simply give up fighting it*.

US politics is, I fear, consistent with all this; high inequality has given us a kleptocratic billionaire.

It’s also consistent with world history as described by Walter Scheidel. He shows that significant falls in inequality have generally been brought about not by gentle redistributive policies but by wars, revolution, disease and state collapse.

Perhaps there is no stabilizing negative feedback loop from increased inequality towards demands for redistribution. If so, a sustained** increase in equality is far harder to achieve than social democrats would like to believe.

* Plus, of course, there's the fact that the richer the rich are, the more they can spend on entrenching their position by buying the media and lobbying.

** How much could a one-term Corbyn government do to permanently increase equality?

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Yet the reformers persist in their delusion that the rich can be persuaded to give up their wealth. You would get more sense out of Daffy Duck!


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Ted Rall: No Way Would Today's Newspapers Publish the Pentagon Papers

Ted Rall writes that No Way Would Today's Newspapers Publish the Pentagon Papers.

The key point of this story, which isn’t made in the movie and few younger moviegoers are likely to be aware, is that it was her decision to make. The Graham family held controlling interest in the Washington Post Company. Great newspaper families like the Grahams, the Chandlers and the Sulzbergers were quirky and often had bad politics. But they also had something today’s corporate, publicly-traded media outlets do not: editorial freedom.

They didn’t always do the right thing. But they could. So sometimes they did.

Sadly, those days are gone.

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Competition within the Capitalist class could sometimes serve the public interest. With the concentration of media ownership, the odiousness of monopoly power emerges. And the public interest is quashed in favour of the private Capitalist interest.


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2018/01/17

Dina Khapaeva: Putin's Medieval Romanticism and Russia's Lurch Right

Dina Khapaeva writes about Putin's Medieval Romanticism and Russia's Lurch Right.

Joseph Stalin initiated the modern cult of Ivan the Terrible. But, since the mid-2000s, Russia’s Eurasia Party — a political movement led by the pro-fascist mystic Alexander Dugin — has moved to position Ivan as the best incarnation of an “authentic” Russian tradition: authoritarian monarchy.

Dugin’s brand of “Eurasianism” advocates the embrace of a “new Middle Ages,” where what little remains of Russian democracy is replaced by an absolute autocrat. In Dugin’s ideal future, a medieval social order would return, the empire would be restored, and the Orthodox church would assume control over culture and education.

Eurasianism, which was marginal in the 1990s, has gained considerable popularity in recent years by contributing to the formation of the so-called Izborsky Club, which unites the Russian far right. On several occasions, Putin has referred to Eurasianism as an important part of Russian ideology; he has even invoked it as a founding principle of the “Eurasian Economic Union,” a burgeoning trade area of former Soviet states.

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And so begins the drift to Fascism in Russia: an authoritarian state run for the Plutocrats with nationalism to keep the people in line. How Donald trump must be envious of Vladamir Putin.


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Seth Godin: Hiding from the mission

Seth Godin writes that Hiding from the mission.

The first is refusing to be clear and precise about what the mission is. Avoiding specifics about what we hope to accomplish and for whom. Being vague about success and (thus about failure).

After all, if no one knows exactly what the mission is, it’s hard feel like a failure if it doesn’t succeed.

The second is even more insidious. We degrade the urgency of the mission. We become diffuse. We get distracted. Anything to avoid planting a stake and saying, "I made this."

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It is very hard being in a revolutionary party. Our failure is all around us. We have a high turn-over of members. We have members that do not expect to see a successful in their lifetime.

Yet, we must persist. Every day that we survive is a victory. Against the brutal reality of Capitalism, resistance to despair is paramount.

And, as we resist, we strengthen ourselves.


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Tom Engelhardt: Seeing Our Wars for the First Time

Tom Engelhardt writes that Seeing Our Wars for the First Time.

America’s war on terror across the globe (from the Costs of War Project). Click on the map to see a larger version.

Looking into the future, let’s pray for one thing: that the folks at that project have plenty of stamina, since it's a given that, in the Trump years (and possibly well beyond), the costs of war will only rise. The first Pentagon budget of the Trump era, passed with bipartisan unanimity by Congress and signed by the president, is a staggering $700 billion. Meanwhile, America’s leading military men and the president, while escalating the country’s conflicts from Niger to Yemen, Somalia to Afghanistan, seem eternally in search of yet more wars to launch.

Pointing to Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, for instance, Marine Corps Commandant General Robert Neller recently told U.S. troops in Norway to expect a “bigass fight” in the future, adding, “I hope I’m wrong, but there’s a war coming.” In December, National Security Adviser Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster similarly suggested that the possibility of a war (conceivably nuclear in nature) with Kim Jong-un’s North Korea was “increasing every day.” Meanwhile, in an administration packed with Iranophobes, President Trump seems to be preparing to tear up the Iran nuclear deal, possibly as early as this month.

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As George Orwell wrote in 1984 (Chapter 9):

The war, therefore, if we judge it by the standards of previous wars, is merely an imposture. It is like the battles between certain ruminant animals whose horns are set at such an angle that they are incapable of hurting one another. But though it is unreal it is not meaningless. It eats up the surplus of consumable goods, and it helps to preserve the special mental atmosphere that a hierarchical society needs. War, it will be seen, is now a purely internal affair. In the past, the ruling groups of all countries, although they might recognize their common interest and therefore limit the destructiveness of war, did fight against one another, and the victor always plundered the vanquished. In our own day they are not fighting against one another at all. The war is waged by each ruling group against its own subjects, and the object of the war is not to make or prevent conquests of territory, but to keep the structure of society intact. The very word ‘war’, therefore, has become misleading. It would probably be accurate to say that by becoming continuous war has ceased to exist. The peculiar pressure that it exerted on human beings between the Neolithic Age and the early twentieth century has disappeared and been replaced by something quite different. The effect would be much the same if the three super-states, instead of fighting one another, should agree to live in perpetual peace, each inviolate within its own boundaries. For in that case each would still be a self-contained universe, freed for ever from the sobering influence of external danger. A peace that was truly permanent would be the same as a permanent war. This — although the vast majority of Party members understand it only in a shallower sense — is the inner meaning of the Party slogan: WAR IS PEACE.

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And we all thought that '1984' was about the USSR. We were wrong — it is all about the USA.


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2018/01/16

Barry Ritholtz: Here Comes the Minimum-Wage Increases

Barry Ritholtz writes that Here Comes the Minimum-Wage Increases.

2018 begins with instant raises for the lowest paid rung of the labor pool — those working for minimum wage — in 18 states and almost 22 municipalities, the lowest-paid workers are seeing an pay increase.

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The Capitalists see wages as a cost to be reduced — not as a source of funds for purchasing goods. Capitalism requires Capitalists to be myopic — profit is all that matters.

The humanity of the workers is an impediment under Capitalism. To see workers as human beings stops Capitalists making profits. The inhumanity of the system is fundamental to Capitalism.


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Ted Rall: We All Love (Our) Free Speech

Ted Rall writes that We All Love (Our) Free Speech.

Controversies over free speech on college campuses and othe place serve to remind us that free speech is in the eye of the beholder, and that people tend to disrespect expression they disagree with. The thing is, however, free speech really is a suicide pact. We're either all in it together or not at all.

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Free speech is essential for a Democracy and, more so, for a Communist society.

The question then becomes do Capitalists have free speech in a Communist society? The simple answer would be "Yes".

Ideally, Capitalists would no longer exist in a Communist society, but the practicalities would suggest that the Capitalists would maintain a marginal existence. They would serve as a reminder of why we should not return to a Capitalist society.


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Juan Cole: Top 5 Signs Trump doesn't Actually Care about Iranian Protesters

Juan Cole writes about Top 5 Signs Trump doesn't Actually Care about Iranian Protesters.

Here are the reasons for which these statements are hypocritical.

  1. If Trump cared about Iranian dissidents, he would welcome those who want to flee to the United States.…
  2. The protesters are protesting economic hardship.…
  3. Sympathizing with working people facing increased prices is not Trump’s brand, and it is rich for him to pretend to care about them.…
  4. The protesters are complaining about the arbitrary, high-handed and authoritarian way that the clerical regime has run Iran.…
  5. Trump has allied himself, and aligned himself, with the Saudi royal family, which in turn is attempting to undermine Iran.…

Protests undermine the Iranian regime. By doing so, these protests weakened Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This weakened influence benefits Israel, and therefore, the USA.


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Chris Dillow: On anti-meritocracy

Chris Dillow writes On anti-meritocracy.

In fact, there might even be something to be said for anti-meritocracy. It’s possible that Trump’s character flaws will prevent him using his presidency to do great irreversible damage, and they might even eventually discredit his policies: imagine if somebody of ability had his agenda.

And it’s possible that the knowledge that success in politics and the media requires obnoxiousness, self-promotion and a wealthy background and the right backers will deter good people from entering them. Whilst this would degrade public life, it would improve the talent pool available to other occupations and save good people from being disappointed; the embittered old hack is a fate to be avoided. Those of us who are comfortably off can safely tend our gardens and ignore the imbecilities of elite politics.

Whether we want an anti-meritocracy or not, it’s what we’ve got. The question is how to make the best of it.

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Trotsky once wrote that the times produced people preculiar to it. He gave an example that occurred during the Russian Revolution: a businessman gathered together his savings and went in search of military officers to give the money to. He had hoped that the old order could be restored with the aid of funds. He found group, after group, of loyalist officer engaged in gambling, drinking, and womanising. There appeared to be no capable and sober loyalist officers left.

The development of social systems decay when people of talent and ability are excluded from the power structures. This may be what is happening now. If so, the decay is starting to erode the Capitalist class, just as decay eroded the fedual lords.


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2018/01/15

Steven Roth: "In the Beginning...Was the Unit of Account" - Twelve Myths About Money

Steven Roth writes that “In the Beginning…Was the Unit of Account” — Twelve Myths About Money.

So my question: what’s a good metaphorical or figurative comparison to help us understand and explain this strange conceptual thingamabob? Is money an invention like algebra? Are there other conceptual constructs that are similar to units of account, comparable mental entities that can help us think about what these things are? I can’t think of any good analogies. It’s vexing.

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In simple Marxist terms, money is a commodity. Based on this characterisation, Roth is right in saying that money is an asset. But he oversimplifies. He denies that interest is the price of money.

A commodity has both an exchange-value and a use-value. Assets are thought of in terms of exchange-value. An asset can fluctuate in its exchange-value, thereby giving an asset a capability to store exchange-value. Commodities can be further traded, or consumed. With consumption, the commodity is extinguished, and its exchange-value and use-value expire.

But not all commodities are exchangeable for all other ones. Commodities that are universably tradeable are called money.

Interest should be better described as the rental price for money. A loan is the right to use a quantity of money. The ownership of the commodity is not transferred as would be the case of an exchange.


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Telesur: Social Media Imperialism? Facebook Bans Palestinian Content at Behest of Israel, US

TeleSur writes about Social Media Imperialism? Facebook Bans Palestinian Content at Behest of Israel, US.

Facebook has been working with Israeli Government officials to suppress Palestinian voices in the social media sphere according to a report published on Saturday in The Intercept. The partnership between the social media giant and officials in Tel Aviv has resulted in the censorship, removal or blocking of content deemed critical of the Israelis with these posting being branded as “incitement.”

Facebook’s virtually unlimited acquiescence with Israeli requests to remove content, has been described as a “censorship rampage“ by Greenwald and have been carried out since Tel Aviv began blaming alleged, “online incitement” for unrest and resistance that overwhelmingly resulted in violence against Palestinian civilians. The hue and cry raised by Tel Aviv resulted in an arrangement between Facebook and the Israeli state, struck in Sept. 2016, that resulted in the creation of teams devoted toward the monitoring and removal of alleged “inflammatory content” criticizing the occupation.

Despite Facebook’s vigilance over content, the Israelis deemed “inflammatory,” posts by extremist Jewish settlers and far-right Zionist officials calling for brutal repression and violence toward Palestinians went unchecked, leaving the dispossessed people with little leverage to combat the occupation’s control of the popular social network. Palestinian complaints highlighting an increasing Israeli social media discourse of hatred remained ignored by the California-based company.

“One can create a fantasy world in one’s head if one wishes, in which Silicon Valley executives use their power to protect marginalized peoples around the world by censoring those who wish to harm them,” Greenwald noted.

“But in the real world, that is nothing but a sad pipe dream. Just as governments will, these companies will use their censorship power to serve, not to undermine, the world’s most powerful factions.”

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Capitalist companies exist to make a profit. They will do whatever it takes to keep making those profits.

It is delusional of the Israelis to imagine that these protests arise because of incitement. They cannot imagine that their own brutality, discrimination, harassment, dispossession, bombings, shootings, etc. towards the Palestinians has anything to do with the anger of the latter.


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John Pilger on Ken Burn's 'Vietnam War': The killing of history

John Pilger on Ken Burn's 'Vietnam War': The killing of history.

What is known in the US as "the left" has effectively allied with the darkest recesses of institutional power, notably the Pentagon and the CIA, to see off a peace deal between Trump and Vladimir Putin and to reinstate Russia as an enemy, on the basis of no evidence of its alleged interference in the 2016 presidential election.

The true scandal is the insidious assumption of power by sinister war-making vested interests for which no American voted. The rapid ascendancy of the Pentagon and the surveillance agencies under Obama represented an historic shift of power in Washington. Daniel Ellsberg rightly called it a coup. The three generals running Trump are its witness.

All of this fails to penetrate those "liberal brains pickled in the formaldehyde of identity politics", as Luciana Bohne noted memorably. Commodified and market-tested, "diversity" is the new liberal brand, not the class people serve regardless of their gender and skin colour: not the responsibility of all to stop a barbaric war to end all wars.

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In the matter of the Deep State, we would find ourselves allied with Donald Trump.

I would have to agree with the Right that the Left is now an impediment to social discourse. The Left has been co-opted by the elites.

When the Left forgot its class roots in the Proletariat, the Left became much easier to co-opt. There is seductiveness in achieving change through reform rather than revolution. The Liberal is the enemy of the Proletariat.


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Mike Kimel: Protests in Iran

Mike Kimel writes about Protests in Iran.

My limited understanding of Iran is that the religious authorities have kept a grip on power — despite being disliked by the urban intelligentsia — by maintaining support among the poor. That makes choosing guns over butter particularly stupid.

My comments on Chris Dillow's ponderings on the strange relationship between Conservatives & austerity can be found here.


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Farooq Tariq: Nepali Communists win landslide, but face big obstacles to win change

Farooq Tariq writes that Nepali Communists win landslide, but face big obstacles to win change.

The Communists landslide victory is a positive development in the South Asian region. It is like a wave fresh, cool air in a heated region on Indian subcontinent.

But the real challenge begins now. The huge victory has raised huge expectations. Reforms are on the agenda.

However, reforms under capitalism can never be of a permanent nature. The capitalist path on longer run is a road to distraction and losing mass support of the Communists ideology. They have to move ahead on the road of parliament to abolishing of capitalism and remaining elements of feudal society. They know the best how to do it if they want to do it.

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The Nepali Communists used a similar strategy to SYRIZA — building political support through community organisations.

The Nepali Communists may have an easier time because of the weakness of Capitalist development in Nepal. However, this weakness also undermines the development of a Socialist society. A Socialist society has to be industrialised.

As is being shown in Venezuela, the development of socialism during a period of dual power is difficult.


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2018/01/14

Joseph McQuade: 2017 was so Gross we even had to relitigate Evils of Colonialism

Joseph McQuade writes that 2017 was so Gross we even had to relitigate Evils of Colonialism.

Although it may seem colonialist views are far behind us, a 2014 YouGov poll revealed 59 per cent of British people view the British Empire as “something to be proud of.” Those proud of their colonial history outnumber critics of the Empire three to one. Similarly, 49 per cent believe the Empire benefited its former colonies.

Such views, often tied to nostalgia for old imperial glory, can help shape the foreign and domestic policies of Western countries.

Gilley has helped to justify these views by getting his opinions published in a peer review journal. In his article, Gilley attempts to provide evidence which proves colonialism was objectively beneficial to the colonized. He says historians are simply too politically correct to admit colonialism’s benefits.

In fact, the opposite is true. In the overwhelming majority of cases, empirical research clearly provides the facts to prove colonialism inflicted grave political, psychological and economic harms on the colonized.

It takes a highly selective misreading of the evidence to claim that colonialism was anything other than a humanitarian disaster for most of the colonized. The publication of Gilley’s article — despite the evidence of facts — calls into question the peer review process and academic standards of The Third World Quarterly.

The Bengal famine of 1943 was the final British-administered famine in India and claimed around three million lives. When Winston Churchill was asked to stop shipping desperately needed foodstuffs out of Bengal, he said Indians were to blame for their own deaths for ‘breeding like rabbits.’
(Shutterstock), CC BY

By contrast, he neglects to mention Japan, a country that legitimately was never colonized and now boasts the third largest GDP on the planet, as well as Turkey, which up until recently was widely viewed as the most successful secular country in the Muslim world.

These counter-examples disprove Gilley’s central thesis that non-Western countries are by definition incapable of reaching modernity without Western “guidance.”

In short, the facts are in, but they do not paint the picture that Gilley and other imperial apologists would like to claim. Colonialism left deep scars on the Global South and for those genuinely interested in the welfare of non-Western countries, the first step is acknowledging this.

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Cries of political correctness are used to suppress inconvenient facts.

One should remember the above picture whenever anyone meantions the famines under Stalin and Mao. Any hierarchical system is capable of such horror.

On a side note, Japan should now be considered to be an American colony because it is dominated by American military and political influence. A Japan acting indepently of American interests is inconceivable. Turkey is able to exert a more independent course for itself.


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Ted Rall: Michael Wolff's Book Shows Hillary Clinton was an Even Crappier Candidate Than We Thought

Ted Rall writes that Michael Wolff’s Book Shows Hillary Clinton was an Even Crappier Candidate Than We Thought.

Because Clinton won’t leave us alone. Because Clintonism, centrism, Third Wayism, DLCism are still running the Democratic Party. Because her corporate neoliberal BS was discredited at the polls yet the party bosses and Dem-aligned media outlets keep shoving it down voters’ throats. Because progressivism and socialism are more popular but can’t get any air until a big sharp stake is driven through the undead heart of soulless centrism once and for all (I’m looking at you, Tim Kaine and Kamala Harris.)

So think on that a while. Hillary Clinton was so sucky that she lost to the suckiest, stupidest, losingest candidate anyone ever dreamed of.

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The labourites would have us believe that we can take over the Labour Party by working inside the system. They forget that one must align to the system before one can join it. Resistance is built outside of the system.

But we cannot divorce ourselves from the system. The people we need to reach are inside the system. Where they are is where we must go. Purity is isolation.


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H. Patricia Hynes: Soldiers of Peace: How to Wield the Weapon of Nonviolence With Maximum Force

H. Patricia Hynes reviews Soldiers of Peace: How to Wield the Weapon of Nonviolence With Maximum Force.

Chappell lays out five questions to ask when people might want to consider using violence to overthrow an oppressive regime or system, using examples from history. Ultimately, though, he returns to the wisdom of Gandhi and King that nonviolence is a more powerful tool than violence. “Violence can kill the liar, the racist, the terrorist”; but it does not kill the “lies that sustain an unjust system, racism, or terrorism. …” He underscores his advocacy for nonviolence with recent landmark research by Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan that concludes, “Nonviolence is more likely than violence to defeat a militarily superior adversary.” Their study of movements from 1900-2006 to overthrow dictatorships, expel foreign occupations or achieve self-determination found that nonviolent resistance campaigns were more than twice as successful as violent insurrections with the same goals. And the trend is increasing even in extremely brutal authoritarian conditions.

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We kill the lies that sustain the system by educating ourselves. In doing so, we develop our proletarian consciousness.


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Seth Godin: "We don't do rabbits"

Seth Godin argues that we all should say "We don't do rabbits".

Good referrals are smarter than mediocre, distracting work.

Own your work. No need to do someone else's.

A revolutionary party has to concentrate on political work that advances the political line of the party congress. Yet, this political line has to reflect the realities of the political environment and the strengths of the party.

It would be nice that we could be everywhere at all political events. But the reality is that revolutionary parties are small and spread very thinly. The work we do has to:

  • Develop the cadre
  • Expand the carde
  • Educate the workers
  • Gain the confidence of the workers
  • Achieve real gains

We can only achieve real gains by understanding correctly the real political environment, and by using our real strenghts.


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Mohammed Nuruzzaman: Protests in Iran - A Different View

Dr. Mohammed Nuruzzaman writes about the Protests in Iran — A Different View.

Clearly, the protests had no chance to succeed, primarily because they were manifestations of intra-elite conflicts, not largescale mass uprisings against the government supported by powerful internal groups. If history is of any witness, political movements in Iran succeed only when they build on mass anger against foreign powers and undue foreign interference in Iranian affairs. The best examples are the 1891 anti-British tobacco movement, the anti-American and anti-British nationalist movements of the late 1940s and early 1950s concerning Iran’s oil resources, and the monumental anti-American and pro-Islamic movements leading to the 1979 revolution. The latest protests had no foreign element involved; it was directed against the government but hardly was there any blueprint to dislodge the government.

Accept it or not, the Iranian political and economic systems, despite their shortcomings, are much more representative than many countries in the Middle East. That explains why the Arab Spring did not touch down on Iran, while the neighboring undemocratic countries had to use force to contain mass protests or bribe their peoples to stay calm. In Iran, there has been an elected parliament without disruptions since 1979, the president is regularly and periodically elected by the people, and the members of the Assembly of Experts, a body responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader and overseeing his activities, are also directly elected by the Iranian voters. So, channels of vetting angers and protests are there and the government also recognizes the constitutionally guaranteed rights of the Iranians to protest peacefully.

It is the democratic practices that undercut the potential of massive popular movements to oust elected governments in Iran — conservative or reformist. Needless to say, it is useless to dream of an overthrow of the Islamic establishment in Iran someday in the future. Both the conservatives and the reformists equally believe in the fundamental ideals and objectives of the 1979 revolution — maintaining and strengthening Iran’s independent voice in a US-dominated world. And the Iranians are very unlikely to be fooled by President Trump and his cohorts.

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In Marxist-Leninist terms, there was no revolutionary party to drive and sustain the protests. And the people had not yet given up on trying to achieve their goals through democratic reforms. The democratic process in Iran has not been exhausted.


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2018/01/13

Histyar Qader: Iraqi Kurdish Leaders' No-Good very Bad Year

Histyar Qader writes about Iraqi Kurdish Leaders’ No-Good very Bad Year.

The end of the year brought strife to Iraqi Kurdistan, The northern region has to deal with a reduced area of influence, internal and external political problems, and a financial crisis.

This year brought major transformation to the semi-autonomous northern region of Iraqi Kurdistan and by the end of the year it had become clear that these changes were not necessarily going to be positive. The future is not looking so bright up north.

The federal government made it clear who was actually still in charge, closing Kurdish airspace and demanding that international border crossings be put back under federal control. It became very clear, very fast, that much of what many Kurdish voters had been taking for granted as their regional right, had always just been Baghdad doing them a favour — or perhaps being otherwise preoccupied, who knows.

Internal and inter-party conflicts continue and most recently, in late December, the major opposition parties in Iraqi Kurdistan withdrew from the regional parliament altogether.

Part of the reason for all the internal political tension, analysts say, is because of the loss of the region’s long-term political leadership, a leadership that, for all its faults, had maintained political checks and balances and some semblance of unity.

Iraqi Kurdish locals had been demonstrating corruption and the fact that many civil servants had not been paid for some months. The Kurdish government has major debts, has seen its revenue sources reduced significantly and owes back pay to hundreds of local workers.

The region that was once doing so well, and seemed so peaceful and prosperous, that it claimed the title “the new Dubai”, has fallen onto extremely hard times, both politically and economically.

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Kurdistan has always been an ideal, not a reality. Shared cultural identity is not enough to create a nation state. This has to be a degree of political unity.

In Kurdistan's case, the political unity was personal. As the personalities depart the scene, the political unity dissapates.

It would be difficult to build a shared political vision of Kurdistan based on four (4) separate independence struggles: against Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. The differences between those struggle are currently too great for a united front for the liberation of Kurdistan.


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Joumanah El Matrah: The feared other: Peter Dutton's and Australia's pathology around race

Joumanah El Matrah writes about The feared other: Peter Dutton's and Australia's pathology around race.

Dutton’s elevation to the home affairs ministry was always to read crime through the lens of ideology; this is the only context in which linking crime to race makes sense. Increasingly it appears that this government wants us to conceive of ourselves as a nation under siege from foreigners, and right now from foreigners that come from one of the most discriminated communities in Australia. Dutton seems compelled to persuade us that those who are most disempowered in our society are our greatest threat.

Ideology is perhaps also why Dutton chose to portray Victoria as a state of residents too frightened to leave home. This is a state that is both Australia’s progressive heartland and the nation’s best attempt at a highly diverse society. Dutton’s implication is that this is the cost of progressive politics and the cost of any sort of pride in our cultural diversity. But this is not a state of scared people, and how most Victorians would respond to Dutton’s comments was best captured by Victoria’s minister for youth affairs Jenny Mikakos’s description of them as “bullshit”.

The damage of wholesale vilification of a community, especially its young people who already face considerable challenges, is sometimes irreparable. It is not only the damage that is wrought from labelling a community as one prone to violence, it is also the damage that is wrought by communities having to defend themselves against accusations of violence as if they are personally responsible.

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Racism divides us so that the elite can rule.

Resistance starts with overcoming fear.

In seeing the dignity in others, we see the dignity in ourselves.


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Juan Cole: Trump Engineered Saudi Soft Coup, attack on Qatar, to Save Self

Juan Cole writes that Trump Engineered Saudi Soft Coup, attack on Qatar, to Save Self.

This naked power grab on the part of Saudi Arabia has likely destroyed the budding Gulf Cooperation Council (that groups Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar), which aimed at being sort of like the European Union plus NATO for the small Gulf Arab oil monarchies. Some of its rationale was to resist Iranian hegemony, so breaking it up helps Iran. Iran has correct relations with Qatar, and stepped in to help offset the Saudi boycott.

To any extent that Trump encouraged the rash Saudi move, he helped further fragment politics in the region. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and SecDef Mattis clearly did not approve and have tried behind the scenes to undermine Trump policy in this regard.

So to conclude: Trump did not get hundreds of billions in new investments in the US from Saudi Arabia. He did manage to put in an erratic and aggressive crown prince in Riyadh, helping destabilize the region in ways Iran will take advantage of. The other corner of Wolff’s reporting on the May trip, that Trump thought it was a prelude to Peace in Our Time in Israel-Palestine, is too complex to take on here but that was also obviously a scam.

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In his eagerness to prove his deal-making abilities, Donald Trump is destabilizing the Middle-East by emboldening Saudi Arabia and strengthening the geopolitical clout of Iran.

In private business, Trump could walk away from a failed deal because he was using other people's money. In international affairs, a failed deal can have horrendous consequences.


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TeleSur: Israeli Ruling Party Votes to Annex West Bank and Seize Last Palestinian Lands

TeleSur reports that Israeli Ruling Party Votes to Annex West Bank and Seize Last Palestinian Lands.

Many analysts expected bolder expansionist moves by the right-wing head of state, especially in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that Washington would move its embassy to Jerusalem — a gesture that was tantamount to a U.S. recognition of unilateral Israeli claims to the divided and unlawfully-held Arab city.

The U.S. announcement was welcomed by the Israelis, who have been working alongside Saudi Arabia in hopes to pressure the Palestinian Authority to accept Donald Trump’s so-called Arab-Israeli “deal of the century” that has not yet been announced. The “deal” would see the Palestinian question settled in exchange for the normalization of ties between Tel Aviv and the Gulf monarchies and the integration of Israel into the regional “family of nations” that the Saudis claim leadership over.

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The Palestinians are about to be screwed over “bigly”. This they have always known: the US unilaterally supports Israel; the Saudis would sell out the Palestinians in a heart-beat.

The only regimes that still garner political support for supporting the Palestinians (Syria, Iran) are figthing for survival.

It is up to the Arab Street to remind the Palestinians that they are not alone. The Palestinian struggle is an Arab one. And a human one.

We, in Australia, should remind Israel that they cannot commit genocide.


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Barry Ritholtz: Taking Stock of a Very Weird Year in Markets

Barry Ritholtz is Taking Stock of a Very Weird Year in Markets.

• Overseas Trounces U.S.: This was a notable performance metric. Although the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had a good year, up 21.7 percent, the rest of the world beat the U.S. Europe had an even better year, with a 27 percent gain, while the Pacific region advanced 28.9 percent and emerging markets surged 37.4 percent. Even Japan, mired in slow growth for ages, outperformed with a 24.3 percent gain. A global economic recovery and improving corporate profits worldwide deserve the credit, not deregulation or tax cuts in the U.S.

• Volatility: A favorite theme of ours reasserted itself last year: Political volatility doesn't equal stock-market volatility. Despite all of the political sturm und drang, be it North Korean missiles, health-care repeal drama, white nationalists is Charlottesville, Virginia, and too many other @realDonaldTrump tweets to keep up with, stock volatility was the lowest in a half-century. You have to go back to 1964 to find average daily change for the S&P 500 as low as it was in 2017. It wasn’t just the U.S.; the lack of connectivity between politics and equities in emerging markets saw those stocks ignore all manner of political crises as well.

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This would mean that investors are consistently confident. They are more so outside of the US.

This well be a delusion on the part of investors. They imagine themselves isolated from everything happening around the world. Maybe they are confident that governments will bail them out as governments did back in the Great Financial Crisis, and there would be no political ramifications for doing so.

When elites lose any connection to reality, we enter dangerous times.


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2018/01/12

GLW: Iran rocked by mass anti-regime protests fuelled by poverty

Iran rocked by mass anti-regime protests fuelled by poverty.

Iran is a country of 80 million people. Despite extensive natural resources, such as oil, gas, coal, copper … and considerable wealth, almost 70 per cent of people live in poverty. At the same time, we have growing upper classes and super rich that are mostly linked to different factions of the regime and children and relatives of the officials and various forces within the establishment. We have witnessed the most shameful theft of resources and financial embezzlement in the country’s history by these groups while workers and poor people have been continuously humiliated and their protests for their rights and accountability frequently crushed.

We strongly oppose and condemn any interference by Trump’s administration and its allies like the Israeli regime, and the Iranian right-wing and pro-monarchy opposition, in the protest movements in Iran. The working and poor people of Iran know well that Trump’s fascist and ultra-right politics would bring nothing but more disaster to the country. We need the workers’ and socialist organizations and progressive forces in the world to stand in solidarity with the working class and the poor oppressed people of Iran and help strengthen anti-capitalist, anti-poverty and social justice movements while increasing efforts in identifying and isolating the right wing, nationalist and pro-imperialist elements.

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The Capitalists are divided — the Iranian and American Capitalists fight each other.

Do not let this fight fool you. In the face of a proletarian revolution, the Capitalists would unite with the petite-bourgeoisie to crush the revolution.


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Gay Alcorn: Helen Garner's The First Stone is outdated. But her questions about sexual harassment aren't

Gay Alcorn writes that Helen Garner’s The First Stone is outdated. But her questions about sexual harassment aren’t.

Garner is “aware of the immense weight of men on women, the ubiquity of their attentions, the exhaustion of our resistance”.

But through the book, there is no sense that that could change. It just couldn’t be comprehended at the time. It is hard to overstate what a mind shift that has been over the past few months, what an explosion of insight and possibility.

For this moment is not really about sexual harassment. It is about the unfinished project of equality between men and women. That has much more to do with disadvantaged women with casual jobs than Hollywood stars with all their privileges. But most women, from all classes, all backgrounds, recognise that “weight”.

Yet Garner won’t let women off the hook, not for a moment. She reminds us that feminism is about justice.

Unjust is the word for the behaviour of men who use their position of power as a weapon in forcing women to endure their repeated sexual approaches, or who take revenge for a knockback by distorting a woman’s career or making her workplace intolerable or sacking her. Unjust does not apply to a clumsy pass at a party by a man who’s had too much to drink.

These days, it does, and mostly should, if that man is a leader in an organisation. But her point about proportion, about gradation of offence, rings true today. The hardline view that every transgression reinforces rape culture and misogyny is a hindrance, not a help. “The ability to discriminate must be maintained,” writes Garner. “Otherwise all we are doing is increasing the injustice of the world.”

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In realising the dignity of women, men realise their own dignity.


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Dan Crawford: The end game is privatization...vouchers are one step

Dan Crawford writes that The end game is privatization…vouchers are one step.

Jennifer Berkshire pointed Peter Greene to:

If you take nothing else from this piece, remember this— for many of the most ardent voucher supporters, school vouchers are not a destination, but just a stop-gap, something that will have to do until they can finally move on their real goal— the complete dismantling of public education in this country, replaced with a loose system of unaccountable, unregulated private schools. That fully privatized system, not a voucher system, is the goal. Keep your eye on the ball.

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So as it is in America, so it will be in Australia.

Capital has to continually find new sources of profit. In Australia, higher education has become a very profitable sector for the time-being. And as the many scandals over the private schools has shown (outside of the rampant pedophilia) is the shameless pursuit of profit over the educational needs of the students.

As a society, we have to decide whether education is a public good available to all, or just another commodity, like iron ore or cars, to be exploited for profit.


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Juan Cole: Are Iran's protests Economic or Political?

Juan Cole asks: Are Iran's protests Economic or Political?

It also appears that the protests began last Thursday [2017-12-28] with support from hard liners who were hoping to embarrass President Rouhani. The latter had put a lot of political capital behind the nuclear deal with the Security Council, on the grounds that it would end sanctions and improve the economic situation, which had become dire under Obama’s severe sanctions. The joke turned out to be on the hard liners, who started a wave of protests but lost control of them, with crowds chanting not just death to Rouhani (what the hard liners were going for) but death to Khamenei and death to the Revolutionary Guards (the very institutions the hard liners wanted to strengthen).

One problem with the debate between Abrams and Thomas Erdbrink of the NYT is that separating out economic and political discontents is not easy, especially in Iran, where the government (as in most petro-states) owns some 80% of the economy. I think we may conclude that some voices in some of the protests have begun speaking of overthrowing the government, and the question for many protesters no longer seems to be high priced food but rather the clerical regime itself.

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That is the problem with state capitalism: economic performance and political legitimacy are intertwined.

The protests initially started as political maneuvering by the hard-liners, but ended up by attacking the legitimacy of the state.

Israel hoped to capitalise on this unrest in order to undermine the Iranian influence in the Middle East by causing the Iranian government to withdraw while saving itself.


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Anna Patty; 'Class cluelessness' in Australia is not a white working class issue

Anna Patty writes that 'Class cluelessness' in Australia is not a white working class issue.

Dr David Burchell, who lectures on History and Political Thought at the University of Western Sydney, says traditional working-class people in Australia valued the respect they earned in their local community because they held down stable jobs and worked with their hands with some skill.

Dignity was found in hard work and in holding down a steady job and being able to support a family. But those values are not shared by the professional managerial class that live in city centres.

However, the gulf between the traditional working class and professional managerial class has widened and the Australian Labor movement has drifted further away from socially conservative views held by the traditional working class, while embracing many of the more progressive social values held by the professional managerial class.

The bread winner model family also remains robust among blue-collar workers. The traditional working-class vision for a stable job and nostalgia for the nuclear family continues to be the ideal for many working parents who barely see each other. They often tag team their child care, which can mean meeting in a car park to hand over the baby as one parent starts work and the other finishes.

In Australia, class divisions are not simple. Watson says there is a divide between wage earners and the self-employed. That means tradies vote Liberal alongside other self-employed business people, fee-charging lawyers and other members of the upper managerial class.

In Australia, the post-war professional managerial class had an interest in nation building including large infrastructure projects, including social housing during the Whitlam era. During the Hawke/Keating period that social infrastructure investment started to become dismantled.

Watson argues that when the professional managerial class developed its own strong economic interests aligned with the owners of capital, an antagonism with the traditional working class developed.

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There has always been a split between the ordinary proletariat and the worker aristocracy. The latter have always aligned themselves with the petite-bourgeoisie.


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2018/01/11

Chris Dillow: Conservatives & austerity

Chris Dillow ponders the strange relationship between Conservatives & austerity.

There’s a second way. Once we acknowledge that people’s incomes depend upon fiscal policy it follows that poverty is a failure of government rather than of individuals. Conservatives can then no longer regard it as a moral failing.

Fiscal austerity, therefore, is needed in order to maintain the “natural” hierarchy in which the rich are entitled to power because they are virtuous heroes whilst the poor must be stigmatized as lazy and feckless.

Secondly, American rightists have no problem with the prospect of rising government debt if it means tax cuts for the rich. They value inequality and hierarchy over fiscal prudence.

Yes, support for austerity is an intellectual error. But it might be one founded in a peculiarity of the Conservative psyche. Keynesians, I fear, under-rate this point.

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George Orwell expressed the same sentiments in his book, 1984.

It was possible, no doubt, to imagine a society in which wealth, in the sense of personal possessions and luxuries, should be evenly distributed, while power remained in the hands of a small privileged caste. But in practice such a society could not long remain stable. For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realise that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away. In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance.

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And I cannot resist including Adam Suttler's rant about why the people need the rulers:

People need hierarchy to protect them from all of those threats that the hierarchy created.


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Steve Roth: The Evolution of Ownership...get off my lawn

Steve Roth writes about The Evolution of Ownership…get off my lawn.

It’s not hard to see the crucial fact in this little fable: property rights are ultimately based, purely, on coercion and violence. If the controlling tribe can’t enforce its claim through violence, their “ownership” is meaningless. And those claimed rights are not just inclusionary (the one tribe can use the water). Property rights are primarily or even purely exclusionary. Owners can prevent others from doing anything with the owners’ property. Get off my lawn!

In the modern world we’ve largely outsourced the execution of that violence, the monopoly on violence, to government. If a family sets up a picnic on “your” lawn, you can call the police and they’ll remove that family — by force if necessary. And we’ve multiplied the institutional and legal mechanics and machinery of ownership a zillionfold. The whole world’s financial machinery — the immensely complex web of claims, claims on claims, and claims on claims on claims, endlessly and densely iterated and interwoven — all comes down to (the threat of) physical force.

Balance sheets, accounting, and their associated concepts (assets, liabilities, net worth, equity and equity shares) are the technology humans have developed to manage, control, and allocate our (violence-enforced) ownership claims, a crucial portion of our social relationships. At first the balance sheets were only implicit — when the tribe first laid claim to the spring. But humans started writing them down and formalizing them, tallying those ownership and obligation relationships, thousands or tens of thousands of years ago. (Coins weren’t invented till about 800 BC.)

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Roth gives a succinct history of property. The importance of the state in enforcing those rights are critical.

Different property rights are the basis of social classes. Slavery treats slaves as property. Feudalism treats a tract of land along with its people as property. Capitalism treats the products of labour as property.

In a Capitalist society, the government is not neutral, nor are the police, the justice system, or the army. They all exist to enforce and protect Capitalist property rights.

Socialist control of a Capitalist government is untenable because of the inherent contradiction between what the government protects and promotes, and what the mass of the people want.

A Socialist revolution means the sweeping away of the Capitalist instruments of power, and replacing them with Socialist ones.


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Paul Mason: Churchill's genius was understanding how to keep working-class radicalism in check

Paul Mason writes that Churchill’s genius was understanding how to keep working-class radicalism in check.

Churchill’s choice to fight — even though, as the writer of the Oldman movie claims, he veered dangerously close to the idea of a compromise with Hitler — was the result of a patriotic calculation. If you don’t fight, you lose the empire, was one line of argument. The other, implicit, but understood above all by the Labour moderates around the Cabinet table of the all-party coalition — Clement Attlee and Arthur Greenwood — was about domestic politics.

Boris Johnson, in his recent biography of Churchill, constructs a convincing alt-history around the question: what would have happened to the world in a “non-Churchill universe”? Nazi tyranny across Europe is the answer — but Johnson can’t quite bring himself to complete the picture by asking what it might have done to British politics. The answer is, they would have exploded. In a non-Churchill universe, the Labour leaders, under pressure from their mass base, might never have joined the National Government. They would certainly have broken with it if, under cover of a semi-press blackout, the British government had handed Malta, Gibraltar and some African colonies to Germany and then sued for a separate peace. To sell that peace to the public, the entire supercilious apparatus of the media, monarchy and civil service would have been deployed.

Churchill’s genius in 1940 was not just that he understood the military situation, but that he understood the dynamics of the British class system and what kept working-class radicalism in check better than any Conservative member of the cabinet.

Both the current Churchill biopics portray him as a flawed elitist, past his prime, drawing on emotion and willpower to make an otherwise inexplicable break with his blundering past. Meanwhile the Dunkirk movie portrays Britain as a kind of sepia postcard, in which people manning the flotilla boats stand like model figurines against fragments of Nimrod from Elgar’s Enigma Variations. Though all three films are eminently watchable, it is important to understand that a false reality is being constructed, in which class conflict, ignorance and the deep pro-fascist sympathies of the large sections of the British elite are edited out. Once you factor them back in, the redemptive character of Churchill’s actions become all the more impressive.

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Fascism is what the Capitalists want when the petite-bourgeoisie and proletariat want change. Fascism allows the Capitalists to pit the petite-bourgeoisie against the proletariat.

Fascism always starts as a petite-bourgeoisie revolutionary movement as has been happening in the US. This movement manifested itself as the TEA Party, White Rights, Mens Rights, etc.. The latter are all based on groups that have lost power under social changes. These groups want to return to a mythical past.

This is the danger with Donald Trump. His political base is within the petite-bourgeoisie. He has to align with fascist tendencies if he wants to keep their support. He had to do this at the recent Charlottesville protests.

Even if Trump does not have Fascism as his destination, his reliance on those who do, drives him in that direction. This tendency will be deepened as Trump comes into conflict with other factions within the Capitalist class. He needs the support of the Fascists to survive any political fight.


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Will Steffen: Penrith swelters while Florida freezes: climate disruption is to blame

Will Steffen writes that Penrith swelters while Florida freezes: climate disruption is to blame.

Terms like "global warming" and the mental images they trigger can be misleading when people attempt to understand what is happening to the climate. A far better term is "climate disruption", which captures the real nature of the vast array of changes, many of them abrupt and unexpected, that are occurring.

"Climate disruption" was often used by Professor John Holdren, science adviser to former US president Barack Obama, to emphasise that a 1 or 2 degree increase in global average temperature does not simply translate into modest, uniform warming but rather triggers surprisingly sharp changes in extreme weather and disrupts longer-term weather and climate patterns.

The world's ecosystems and critical human systems, such as agriculture, are adapted to the relatively stable climatic conditions of the past 12,000 years. These include not only temperature, but also the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and the oceans that move heat and moisture around the planet and deliver the seasonal and geographical patterns of rainfall, heat and storms that we consider normal. These normal patterns are increasingly being disrupted by what is often termed "climate change".

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If people think migration is bad now, wait until whole populations start moving in reaction to permanent changes in climate. In history, people have always moved away from areas that became drier to those that became wetter. Rainfall dictates where people live. This should be obvious to Australians.

Syria is probably the best current example of how a state is failing because of climate disruption. The prolonged drought caused an internal migration which the government failed to address adequately. This caused a social crisis that escalated in a brutal civil war.

Australia should not be worried about a few hundred migrants in boats. Australians should be worried about 120 million Indonesians who face the choice between dying in the soon-to-be-too-hot islands, or moving south to cooler climes.

By the time it is obvious that action should be taken, it would be too late to restore normalcy quickly. The cost of reversing the emission grows daily. The future cost of doing nothing is high; the future cost of fixing the problem will be even higher.


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2018/01/10

Andrew Bacevich: A Country Addicted to War

Andrew Bacevich writes about A Country Addicted to War.

The fact is that the individuals entrusted by President Trump to direct U.S. policy believe with iron certainty that difficult political problems will yield to armed might properly employed.  That proposition is one to which generals like Mattis and Nicholson have devoted a considerable part of their lives, not just in Afghanistan but across much of the Islamic world. They are no more likely to question the validity of that proposition than the Pope is to entertain second thoughts about the divinity of Jesus Christ.

In Afghanistan, their entire worldview — not to mention the status and clout of the officer corps they represent — is at stake.  No matter how long the war there lasts, no matter how many “generations” it takes, no matter how much blood is shed to no purpose, and no matter how much money is wasted, they will never admit to failure — nor will any of the militarists-in-mufti cheering them on from the sidelines in Washington, Donald Trump not the least among them.

Meanwhile, the great majority of the American people, their attention directed elsewhere — it’s the season for holiday shopping, after all — remain studiously indifferent to the charade being played out before their eyes.

It took a succession of high-profile scandals before Americans truly woke up to the plague of sexual harassment and assault.  How long will it take before the public concludes that they have had enough of wars that don’t work?  Here’s hoping it’s before our president, in a moment of ill temper, unleashes “fire and fury” on the world.

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As Upton Sinclair once wrote:

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

The objective reality of failure in Afghanistan has its roots in the subjective reality of American morality superiority. The Americans cannot succeed without challenging their subjective reality.


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David Von Drehle: The Trump Recession is coming

David Von Drehle writes that The Trump Recession is coming.

The stock market races endlessly upward. Help-wanted signs paper shop windows. Economies around the world are in a rare period of simultaneous growth, and tax cuts have brightened corporate boardrooms around the US.

But a downward turn lies somewhere ahead, be it a recession, slump or, God forbid, crash. A necessary part of the energy of economic cycles comes from the ebbing of each wave.

History suggests that the next recession is not far off. The current expansion, though relatively weak, has been steady since June 2009, making this the third-longest upward climb on record.

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This analysis relies solely on historical comparisons which is a good first-order approximation. But it explains nothing, and predicts nothing.

However, each boom and bust cycle is different. But the underlying cause remains the same: over-production.

In this boom cycle, there is no obvious commodity that is driving the boom. This makes it difficult to estimate when over-production will occur and the bust starts.

That there will be over-production is one of the fundamental laws of motion for Capitalism. It has nothing to do with Donald Trump.

The Wikipedia article (List of recessions in the United States) points out:

The National Bureau of Economic Research dates recessions on a monthly basis back to 1854; according to their chronology, from 1854 to 1919, there were 16 cycles. The average recession lasted 22 months, and the average expansion 27. From 1919 to 1945, there were six cycles; recessions lasted an average 18 months and expansions for 35. From 1945 to 2001, and 10 cycles, recessions lasted an average 10 months and expansions an average of 57 months. This has prompted some economists to declare that the business cycle has become less severe. Factors that may have contributed to this moderation include the creation of a central bank and lender of last resort, like the Federal Reserve System in 1913, the establishment of deposit insurance in the form of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933, increased regulation of the banking sector, the adoption of interventionist Keynesian economics, and the increase in automatic stabilizers in the form of government programs (unemployment insurance, social security, and later Medicare and Medicaid). See Post-World War II economic expansion for further discussion.

Emphasis Mine

These economic stabilizers are under attack by Conservatives. Removing the stabilizers will make live for the workers miserable when a crash happens. But, the rich do not give a fuck for the poor.


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