David Von Drehle: The Trump Recession is coming

David Von Drehle writes that The Trump Recession is coming.

The stock market races endlessly upward. Help-wanted signs paper shop windows. Economies around the world are in a rare period of simultaneous growth, and tax cuts have brightened corporate boardrooms around the US.

But a downward turn lies somewhere ahead, be it a recession, slump or, God forbid, crash. A necessary part of the energy of economic cycles comes from the ebbing of each wave.

History suggests that the next recession is not far off. The current expansion, though relatively weak, has been steady since June 2009, making this the third-longest upward climb on record.

Emphasis Mine

This analysis relies solely on historical comparisons which is a good first-order approximation. But it explains nothing, and predicts nothing.

However, each boom and bust cycle is different. But the underlying cause remains the same: over-production.

In this boom cycle, there is no obvious commodity that is driving the boom. This makes it difficult to estimate when over-production will occur and the bust starts.

That there will be over-production is one of the fundamental laws of motion for Capitalism. It has nothing to do with Donald Trump.

The Wikipedia article (List of recessions in the United States) points out:

The National Bureau of Economic Research dates recessions on a monthly basis back to 1854; according to their chronology, from 1854 to 1919, there were 16 cycles. The average recession lasted 22 months, and the average expansion 27. From 1919 to 1945, there were six cycles; recessions lasted an average 18 months and expansions for 35. From 1945 to 2001, and 10 cycles, recessions lasted an average 10 months and expansions an average of 57 months. This has prompted some economists to declare that the business cycle has become less severe. Factors that may have contributed to this moderation include the creation of a central bank and lender of last resort, like the Federal Reserve System in 1913, the establishment of deposit insurance in the form of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933, increased regulation of the banking sector, the adoption of interventionist Keynesian economics, and the increase in automatic stabilizers in the form of government programs (unemployment insurance, social security, and later Medicare and Medicaid). See Post-World War II economic expansion for further discussion.

Emphasis Mine

These economic stabilizers are under attack by Conservatives. Removing the stabilizers will make live for the workers miserable when a crash happens. But, the rich do not give a fuck for the poor.