The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a very interesting book. Although I disagreed with some of the author's contentions, I found the book quite worthwhile to read.

The author makes a very convincing case for considering the silence of the graveyard in which the reasons for failure cannot be known because the participents had died in the attempt. This is particularly revelant for revolutions as the key players on the losing side are usually killed. And, as such, no comparison to successful revolutions can be made.

The author also stressed the importance of recognizing the limits of models. In Communist theory, the Bolshevik revolution of 1917 is held up as a model of success. But, we should also recognize the historical context because that revolution eventually failed whereas the revolutions continue in Vietnam, Laos, and Cuba. China has reverted to Capitalism, and North Korea is just waiting to unify with the South.

I think the author failed to distinguish sufficiently between human and natural systems. I got the impression that he treated them the same.

The author made no reference to Kuhn's work The Structure of Scientific Revolutions which covered similar ground. This I found intriguing.

The author quite correctly points out that the skewed distribution of wealth leads to extreme events. But I do not think he goes far enough to attribute the increasing instability of the Capitalist system to the increasing concentration of wealth and decision-making in the hands of fewer and fewer people. Witness the similarity of outlook of the WEF at Davos. Among such a small group of people, a really bad decision can go unchallenged, whereas a larger group may have enough dissendents to challenge it.

I am at odds with his ludic fallacy because I am convinced that we can understand the rules of human interactions in politics and economics. And I bristle at the idea that anyone would appear to surrender to unreason. Capitalism is built upon reason not unreason. It is arrogant enough to think that the universe is understandable and therefore can be controlled. This is one of the driving forces of Capitalism. Take that away and you are left with a cargo cult.