Why Washington’s Iran Policy Could Lead to Global Disaster

Juan Cole argues Why Washington’s Iran Policy Could Lead to Global Disaster: What History Should Teach Us About Blockading Iran. The conclusion is:

As the sanctions morph into a virtual blockade, they raise the specter that all blockades do — of provoking a violent response. Just as dangerous is the specter that the sanctions will drag on without producing tangible results, impelling covert or overt American action against Tehran to save face. And that, friends, is where we came in.

Cole argues that the Iranian leadership has consistently argued that nuclear weapons are immoral and against the Islamic religious precepts. This has been a consistent position of the Islamic Republic of Iran since its founding. Yet, the sanctions are changing Iranian public opinion:

Only a few years ago, a majority of Iranians disapproved of the idea of having an atomic bomb. Now, according to a recent Gallup poll, more support the militarization of the nuclear program than oppose it.

The sanctions exist as a sop to the Israelis in order to stop them from taking military action against Iran. Cole argues that these sanctions could cripple Western economies through higher oil prices despite assurrances from the Saudis about replacing lost Iranian oil production.

These sanctions are actively undermined by China and India who are getting discounted oil for their economies, and boosts to their economies as they pay for the Iranian oil in their own currencies.