Juan Cole: Why did Turkey dare shoot down a Russian Plane? The Proxy War in Syria

Juan Cole asks Why did Turkey dare shoot down a Russian Plane? The Proxy War in Syria.

We may conclude that Russia’s targeting of Turkmen, an ethnic group that speaks a language similar to that spoken in Turkey, raised nationalist hackles in Ankara. But in addition, these Syrian Turkmen are religious, just as is the leadership of the ruling AKP in Turkey. And, further, they are a linchpin for Turkish, American and Saudi intervention in Syria, since they appear to be among the arms smugglers getting munitions to the rebels against the al-Assad government. Although the CIA maintains that these weapons only go to some 45 “vetted” groups that are not extremists, they in fact get into the hands of al-Qaeda and its allies, grouped as the Army of Conquest, as well. Russia must defeat the Army of Conquest and protect the Alawites of Latakia if it is to achieve its war aims in Syria, and appears to have decided to begin by blocking Turkmen smuggling. The Turkmen had their revenge, claiming to have killed one or both of the pilots who ejected from the downed fighter jet and also taking down a Russian helicopter that attempted to rescue them. [Update: Russia later rescued both pilots, who are actually unharmed.]

Russia and Turkey are now fighting a proxy war in Syria, and have been all this fall. As of yesterday, they are not just using proxies, but are directly in conflict with one another.

Turkey and the Turkmen are carving out a sphere of influence in northern Syria and are insisting that Russia recognize it. How severe the conflict becomes depends in part on how Russia responds to this setback for its war aims. It also depends on whether Turkish goals are more ambitious, to help the al-Qaeda-led Army of Conquest take Latakia. If Jabal Turkmen is a red line for Turkey, Latakia port is a red line for Russia. Red lines have a way of turning into hot wars.

Emphasis Mine

Turkey was able to do this because it has the backing of the USA. Any retaliation by Russia means direct conflict with the USA. An indirect way would be for Russia to overtly support Kurdish rights in Turkey. And covertly support the Kurdish militias.