Juan Cole: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia seek Pakistani Nuclear Umbrella against Israel

Juan Cole discusses Türkiye and Saudi Arabia seek Pakistani Nuclear Umbrella against Israel.

Cole assesses the scope, viability, and intent of the newly announced tripartite pact as:

The tripartite alliance brings enormous strengths to the table. Saudi Arabia has trillions of dollars in reserves and its sovereign investment fund. Al Jazeera points out that Türkiye has an advanced defense industry. Pakistan has a big, experienced military with lots of operational experience. Saudi Arabia wants to expand its arms industry. Al Jazeera does not add that Islamabad has a nuclear arsenal and an advanced fighter jet manufacturing capability (joint with China) of its own.

The pact is symbolic and is aimed both at Israel and at Iran, though Saudi Arabia views Israel as the bigger existential threat. Israel’s behavior since 2023 has convinced Riyadh that it seeks to dominate the region with aggressive regional forever wars, from which Saudi Arabia is not immune. Nor does Riyadh believe it could depend on the erratic Donald Trump to protect its interests were Israel to attack it.

Emphasis Mine

Israeli actions, under US protection, has indeed forced this new security architecture onto the Middle East. US bases are no longer seen as a guarantee of US protection. Nor active adherence to the petrodollar system automatically engages US interest.

The ramifications of this new pact reverberates around the Black Sea, Aegean Sea, Mediterrean Sea, and Arabian Sea. Disputes in these areas widen the area of engagement greatly.

India is a big loser as Pakistani influence strengthens while US support is erratic at best. In effect, all of its land borders are adjacent to hostile powers: Pakistan; China; and increasing Chinese influence in Mynamar. This complicates Indian diplomacy considerably. The Indian reliance on Russian influence to balance these hostile powers is now doubtful with the slow-grinding war in Ukraine.

We have just taken another step into the multipolar world as US power and influence wanes.

AI Disclosure

Image was generated by Gemini AI.