2014/11/26

Who Will Wind Up Holding the Bag in the Shale Gas Bubble?

Yves Smith asks Who Will Wind Up Holding the Bag in the Shale Gas Bubble?

Even though OilPrice reported that US rig count had indeed fallen as oil prices plunged, John Dizard at the Financial Times (hat tip Scott) gives a more intriguing piece of the puzzle: the degree to which production is still chugging along despite it being uneconomical. The oil majors have been criticized for levering up to continue developing when it is cash-flow negative; they are presumably betting that prices will be much higher in short order.
Emphasis Mine
Anyone who thinks that Capitalism is inherently rational should ponder the fact that the investors are pouring money into businesses that are losing money and will lose money for the foreseeable future.
Yet the laws of motion for Capitalism compels them to behave in this manner. Capital must be invested in order to be reproduced. Since Capitalists compete against each other, they must join in the frenzy lest someone succeeds more than they do. Thus, bubbles are born.
The individual Capitalist is no longer a maven of industry or an originator but rather a financial investor. The era when the former was king has long past as noted by Lenin back in 1917.
The extremely low interest rates encourage very large leverage on investments. That is, an investment has very small percentage that is actually the investor's own money while the rest is borrowed. So the investor stands to lose a small amount of money with the possibility of very large returns because of the low interest rates.
It is 2007/08 all over again.

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