The Death of Peak Oil

The Oil Drum considers The Death of Peak Oil.

Although world-wide production was flat for several years leading to the news that "peak-oil" had been reached, changes in technology and inclusion of natural gas into production figures has changed that some what:

Let's start by taking a look at what happened to global oil production in the years since those two very different views were offered. Total world liquids production as reported by the EIA had reached 85.2 million barrels a day at the time Pickens issued his pronouncement. It briefly passed that level again in June 2006 and June 2008, though mostly was flat or down over 2005-2009 before resuming a modest and erratic climb since then. The most recent number (December 2012) was 89.3 million barrels a day, 4 mb/d higher than where it had been in May 2005, and 12 mb/d below the levels that Yergin had expected we'd be capable of by 2010.

But more than half of that 4 mb/d increase has come in the form of natural gas liquids-- which can't be used to make gasoline for your car-- and biofuels-- which require a significant energy input themselves to produce. If you look at just field production and lease condensate, the increase since May 2005 has only been 1.7 mb/d.

The biggest technological change has been using horizontal fracking:

The rush to judgment seems to be based on the remarkable recent success from using horizontal fracturing to extract oil from tighter rock formations. Here for example is a graph of production from the state of Texas, one of the areas experiencing the most dramatic growth in tight oil production. In 2012, Texas produced almost 2 million barrels each day, up 800,000 barrels a day from 2010.

I wonder if the horizontal fracturing used in the extraction of oil is as damaging as CSG fracking. The same concerns over earthquakes and contaimination of aquifiers would seem to be the same.

Farida Iqbal reveals in White paper reveals gas industry scared of global protests that enivornmental action is effective in stopping such practices.

The white paper accurately describes the methods that have made the movement so successful. It lists the four effective campaign strategies as “grassroots mobilisation, online and social media, direct action, and networking”.

…

The white paper describes the global diversity of the movement. Anti-fracking movements are driven by such varied concerns as the need to protect farmland, climate change, and a desire to protect local jobs.

Water, however, is a global issue. Around the world, anti-fracking movements are united by their concern for the amount of water extracted and the risk of water contamination.

We face a critical juncture in world history. Our industrial civilization is heavily dependent on oil for farming, transportation, and manufacturing. Yet, to continue economic growth, we must contaiminate our water supply and imperil the climate. The question is no longer about standards of living but of human survival.