Greece: If SYRIZA wins the election, what might happen next?

Lisa Mittendrein and Valentin Schwarz asks If SYRIZA wins the election, what might happen next?.

Possibly the most serious strategy would be for the ECB to threaten to stop providing liquidity to Greek banks. Varoufakis describes this as a "nuclear weapon" which could bring the Greek banking sector down almost immediately. It would be extreme, but not unthinkable: In December 2014, the ECB threatened to effectively cut off Greek banks unless the government complied with Troika wishes. Varoufakis is convinced that a SYRIZA government must be prepared for this form of blackmail if it is to last long enough to negotiate a new deal for Greece.

Despite all these challenges, there is still optimism among SYRIZA members. Although many consider it possible that their government could last only for a few weeks, they say their chances are better today than they would have been in 2012. They see fractures within the neoliberal bloc that they can try to exploit, like the ECB’s fear of deflation, the position of Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi, and the recent conflicts within the French government. By getting into government and implementing first measures, SYRIZA hopes to accelerate existing debates, especially within European social democracy and the trade unions.

Emphasis Mine

This is the major problem that reformers face: they must work within a system hostile to the interests of the workers and others. The system is never neutral—it always works in the favour of the ruling class whoever they may be.

But as Trotsky says, people must explore every option the old system offers before they consider replacing it. And the election of a radical party is one such option.

The problem comes with the inevitable defeat of such an event. SYRIZA will either be co-opted into the system, or crushed through unrelenting political, police, and economic pressure. The question is how much of its radical program can be implemented before its demise.

Another question is whether people will lose hope and sink into apathy, or retreat before trying again. Much of the answer depends on the level of political consciousness of the people, and how fast that is evolving as events unfold. This is where the acceleration of debates comes in.